Rumors within the Right-wing circles have been gaining momentum, with one of the long-standing speculations asserting that despite President Joe Biden officially announcing his reelection campaign in April, he might eventually opt out of running due to factors such as his advanced age and legal issues associated with his son, Hunter.
While this notion does hold potential validity, Republican strategists and pundits harbor their reservations. These concerns arise not only from the prospects of their own party’s nominee in 2024, given the challenges faced by the GOP, but also from the fact that the path to victory cannot solely rely on Biden’s possible withdrawal.
However, the prevailing likelihood appears to be that Joe Biden is, in fact, gearing up for reelection. Should this prove true, securing the Democratic Party’s nomination will likely be an effortless task for him. Furthermore, Biden emerges as the primary contender who poses a genuine threat to the Republican Party, which, interestingly, speaks volumes about the current state of the GOP.
Particularly significant is Biden’s proven ability to outpace former President Donald J. Trump, a feat that holds true regardless of the tactics employed. Notable figures like former Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) have pointed to indicators, such as Biden’s minimal campaign staff, as evidence that he may not be fully committed to seeking reelection.
However, the rationale behind Biden’s strategy becomes apparent when considering the dynamic of the Democratic Party’s presidential primary. The current stage is too early for the deployment of extensive campaign resources, and his two primary rivals, Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., hardly pose a substantial threat. With the backdrop of the way Democrats nominate their candidates, emphasizing “Superdelegates” since 1988, it becomes clear that influential individuals within the party, backed by financial interests, support Biden’s reelection bid.
The General Election is still far on the horizon, affording Biden ample time to adopt a cautious approach, avoid making detrimental public blunders, and amass campaign funds. Notably, his campaign funds have already surpassed those of potential GOP rivals, even surpassing Donald Trump’s campaign contributions this year.
Unlike Trump, Biden need not allocate substantial campaign resources to navigate a multifaceted primary or grapple with mounting legal fees associated with ongoing legal proceedings. Although Biden’s popularity as president might be debated, his position remains stronger when contrasted with other possible Democratic candidates. The absence of a compelling replacement from the Left, aside from RFK, Jr., further reinforces Biden’s standing.
Ultimately, Biden’s political and financial trajectory is influenced by powerful interests, particularly those connected to former President Barack Obama’s sphere of influence. While California Governor Gavin Newsom is another prominent figure, he is not as tied to the Obama circle as Biden is. This renders Newsom an unlikely contender to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee.
Furthermore, the prospect of facing Donald Trump again in 2024 brings its own dynamics. Biden’s prior success against Trump, combined with Trump’s polarizing image, suggests a competition to secure the lesser of the two unfavorable popularities. This scenario appears advantageous for Biden, especially given Trump’s higher unpopularity among independent voters.
While the road ahead is uncertain, Biden and his team are evidently confident in their capacity to win a race that hinges on negative perceptions. However, should another Republican figure like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerge as the nominee, Biden’s calculations might need recalibrating.
In a hypothetical Biden-DeSantis matchup, the scales might tilt in favor of the Florida governor. Yet, if Trump claims the GOP nomination, the competition is likely to be remarkably tight.
Biden’s approach seems rooted in his belief that he can clinch victory in such a scenario. This might explain his current moderate campaign efforts and suggests that those on the Right shouldn’t hastily assume that the octogenarian leader will bow out and yield the stage to others.