The Democratic Party is pinning its hopes on the 91 counts spread across four indictments that former President Donald Trump is facing in Georgia, New York, and at the federal level, believing that this will pave the way for Joe Biden’s return to the White House.
Despite 53% of voters indicating they won’t vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming year, the fact that Joe Biden’s popularity is practically on par with his predecessor’s should be sounding alarms within the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
As of Friday, the Real Clear Politics Average reveals a dead heat between Trump and Biden at 44%. Under normal circumstances, an incumbent Democratic president should enjoy a considerable lead over his Republican contender, especially one dealing with numerous indictments.
Biden’s disapproval rating, according to the Real Clear Politics Average, stands at 54.1%. There’s a growing concern among Democrats regarding waning enthusiasm for Joe Biden within the Black community, which could potentially hurt his chances.
The specter of reduced voter turnout from both sides looms, and a decrease in Democratic participation might bolster Trump’s chances of victory.
“We have to meet them where they are and we have to show them why the political process matters and what we have accomplished that benefits them,” stated Cedric L. Richmond, a former Biden adviser now serving as a senior adviser at the Democratic National Committee, in conversation with The Washington Post. He emphasized the focus on informing Black voters about the advantages they’ve gained from Biden administration policies, learning from past Democratic attempts that fell short.
“We will not make the mistake that others made of not drawing all the connections,” Richmond affirmed. Reflecting on the 2016 election, analysts have identified evidence indicating that diminished minority turnout adversely impacted Hillary Clinton’s chances, particularly in pivotal swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Furthermore, Biden has managed to convince a significant number of voters that he’s too advanced in years to serve as president. A Yahoo!/YouGov poll unveiled that 67% of voters believe Biden’s age renders him unfit for the presidency, especially considering he would be 86 at the end of a potential second term.
Biden secured his 2020 victory by differentiating himself from Donald Trump and benefiting from the pandemic’s context. With four years elapsed, Americans are grappling with rising costs of essentials like food, rent, and fuel. The president’s economic rhetoric, labeled as Bidenomics, isn’t resonating with voters.
Additionally, American prestige abroad, particularly in regions like the Middle East, East Asia, Africa, and Latin America, has taken a hit under Biden’s leadership. In contrast, Trump still enjoys popularity in the Middle East, where the Arab media views the charges against him as politically motivated.
Moreover, Joe Biden faces lingering questions about potential corruption, which might sway swing voters who are disenchanted with both him and Trump, potentially resulting in abstentions.
The Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley Strassel reminds Democrats of the consequences of supporting a figure as disliked and unpopular as Hillary Clinton. Trump’s victory was partly due to voters perceiving Hillary as less likable, particularly in critical swing states.
“Democrats and their media supporters are ignoring these vulnerabilities, turning a blind eye to Biden’s weaknesses. Instead, they are striving to keep Mr. Trump in the legal and media spotlight, hoping for his nomination. This mirrors their strategy from 2022, where they focused on boosting unconventional far-right candidates in GOP primaries, expecting them to later lose to Democrats,” Strassel writes.
“This approach worked for them during the midterms, but in a nation divided 50/50 and against an incredibly weak incumbent, even Mr. Trump has favorable odds. The fact that Mr. Trump—with his history, indictments, and constant media criticism—is still ahead of Mr. Biden in some head-to-head matchups should prompt Democrats to consider plan B, C, and D through Z.”