Politics

Biden faces an uphill battle in 2024, as Trump gains ground in Five states that could decide the race

With one year left until the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five of the six battleground states that could decide the outcome of the race, according to a new poll by the New York Times and Siena College.

According to a report by Politico on Sunday, November 5, 2023, the poll, which surveyed 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, showed that Trump had a four-point advantage over Biden in the combined results of the six states, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Trump also had a clear lead over Biden in Arizona (47 percent to 43 percent), Georgia (48 percent to 43 percent), North Carolina (47 percent to 43 percent), Pennsylvania (46 percent to 45 percent), and Wisconsin (46 percent to 44 percent).

The only state where Biden had a slight edge over Trump was Nevada (45 percent to 44 percent).

These results are consistent with another poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, which also found that Trump was ahead of Biden in four of the six swing states, and tied with him in Michigan.

The Telegraph poll, which interviewed 6,000 likely voters in the same six states from Oct. 8 to Oct. 14, showed that Trump had a three-point lead over Biden in the combined results of the six states, 46 percent to 43 percent.

The polls suggest that Trump has regained some of the support that he lost in the 2020 election, when Biden won all six of these states by narrow margins, flipping Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from red to blue.

The polls also indicate that Biden is facing a decline in his popularity and approval ratings, amid rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.

One of the main factors that seems to be hurting Biden’s chances of reelection is his age and health.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that a majority of voters in all six states agreed or strongly agreed that Biden was too old to run for office again, while less than half said the same of Trump.

The poll also found that more voters in all six states thought that Trump was in better physical and mental health than Biden.

Another factor that appears to be boosting Trump’s prospects is his perceived strength and leadership.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that more voters in all six states said that Trump was a strong leader, would be tough on China, could get the economy going again, and understood the problems afflicting America, compared to Biden.

The Telegraph/Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll also found similar results, with Trump leading Biden on these attributes in all six states.

However, Biden still had some advantages over Trump in the polls.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that more voters in all six states said that Biden cared about people like them and was willing to work with the other party where possible, compared to Trump.

The Telegraph/Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll also found that Biden led Trump on these qualities in all six states, except for North Carolina.

Moreover, the polls showed that there was still a significant number of voters who were undecided or open to changing their minds.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that 8 percent of the voters in the six states were undecided or refused to answer, while 12 percent of the voters who expressed a preference said there was a chance they would vote for someone else.

The Telegraph/Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll found that 11 percent of the voters in the six states were undecided or did not know, while 9 percent of the voters who expressed a preference said they might change their minds.

Therefore, the polls indicate that the 2024 presidential election is still far from settled and that both Trump and Biden will have to work hard to win over the voters in the crucial battleground states that could determine the fate of the nation.

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